UC  SOUTHERN  REGIONAL  LIBRARY  (-AGILITY 


AA    001  189  124    9 


SRLh  / 

YRt  ^ 


Issued  November  25,  1911. 


U.  S.  DEPARTMENT  OF  AGRICULTURE, 
BUREAU   OF   STATISTICS— CIRCULAR  17  (Revised). 

VICTOR  H.  OLMSTED,  Chief. 


GOYERNMENT  CROP  REPORTS: 


THEIR  VALUE,  SCOPE,  AND  PREPARATION. 


WASHINGTON   :  GOVERNMENT  PRINTING  OFFICE  :  1911 


ORGANIZATION   OF  BUREAU   OP  STATISTICS. 


Statistician  and  Chief:  Victor  H.  Olmsted. 
Associate  Statistician:  Nat.  C.  Murray. 
Assistant  Statistician:  Samuel  A.  Jones. 
Chief  Clerk:  Frank  G.  Kelsey. 

Division  of  Domestic  Crop  Reports:  Fred.  J.  Blair,  Statistical  Scientist  in  Charge. 
Division  of  Production  and  Distribution:  George  K.  Holmes,  Statistical  Scientist  in 

Charge. 
Division  of  Research  and  Reference:  Charles  M.  Daugherty,  Statistical  Scientist  in 

Charge. 
Crop  Reporting  Board : 

Victor  H.  0lm3ted,  Chairman;  Nat.  C.  Murray,  Associate  Statistician;  George 
K.  Holmes;  two  or  more  persons  called  in  from  the  corps  of  special  field 
agents  and  State  statistical  agents. 

(2) 


LETTER  OF  TRANSMITTAL 


U.  S.  Department  of  Agriculture, 

Bureau  of  Statistics, 
WasJiington,  D.  C,  October  10,  1911 '. 
Sir:  I  have  the  honor  to  transmit  herewith  and  recommend  for 
pubHcation  a  revision  of  Circular  17  of  this  bureau,  entitled  "Govern- 
ment Crop  Reports:  Their  Value,  Scope,  and  Preparation."  This 
material  has  been  prepared  in  the  present  convenient  form  so  as  to 
meet  numerous  inquiries  as  to  the  value,  methods,  and  scope  of  the 
crop-reporting  service  of  this  department. 

Very  respectfully, 

Victor  H.  Olmsted, 

Chief  of  Bureau, 
Hon.  James  Wilson, 

Secretary  of  Agriculture. 

[Cir  17]  (3) 


CONTENTS. 


Value  of  Government  crop  reports 7 

Origin  of  the  crop-reporting  service 10 

Methods  of  crop  reporting 11 

Scope  of  crop  reports 12 

Transmission  of  reports  to  bureau  by  correspondents 14 

Preparation  of  reports '. 15 

Method  of  issuing  reports 16 

[Cir  17]  (5) 


GOVERNMENT  CROP  REPORTS :  THEIR  VALUE,  SCOPE, 
AND  PREPARATION. 


VALUE  OF  GOVERNMENT  CROP  REPORTS. 

Prices  of  agricultural  products  are  primarily  governed  by  the  law 
of  supply  and  demand;  therefore  early  information  concerning  the 
supply  is  of  value  to  all.  Those  who  produce  and  those  who  con- 
sume are  vitally  interested  as  well  as  the  dealer  who  stands  between 
them.  The  mutual  relations  and  interests  of  agriculture,  industry, 
commerce,  and  labor  demand  that  there  should  be  pubhshed  at  brief 
intervals  during  the  crop  season  reliable  information  on  the  condition, 
acreage,  production,  and  value  of  the  principal  crops,  by  States  and 
agricultural  areas. 

The  question  is  frequently  asked,  Of  what  value  are  Government 
crop  reports  to  farmers? 

The  Government  crop  reports  are  especially  valuable  and  bene- 
ficial to  farmers,  who  are  benefited  by  them  both  directly  and  indi- 
rectly. All  farmers  benefit  by  them  in  an  indii*ect  way,  but  only 
those  who  read  these  reports  and  ''keep  posted"  by  them  are 
benefited  in  a  direct  way. 

It  is  well  known  that  speculators  and  large  dealers  in  farm  prod- 
ucts do  not  depend  entirely  upon  Government  reports  for  informa- 
tion concerning  crop  conditions.  They  have  traveling  agents  and 
correspondents  (usually  local  buyers)  throughout  the  United  States, 
who  keep  them  posted ;  and  the  large  buyer  or  speculator,  in  return, 
gives  to  these  local  buyers  or  correspondents  information  in  regard 
to  general  conditions.  These  local  buyers  know  the  conditions  of 
crops  in  their  vicinity  better,  as  a  rule,  than  the  average  farmer, 
because  it  is  their  business  to  keep  well  informed.  Tlie  farmer  can 
not,  by  refusing  to  report  for  his  locahty  the  condition  of  crops, 
prevent  buyers  or  speculators  from  knowing  the  condition  of  the 
crop.  But  how  about  the  farmer,  if  Government  crop  reports, 
wliich  are  made  up  largely  "by  and  for  liim,  should  be  discontinued  ? 
He  may  know  very  well  the  condition  of  crops  in  his  own  locality, 
but  he  must  depend  upon  reports  of  others,  in  the  newspapers  or 
otherwise,  for  the  conditions  of  the  entire  crop.  Prices  in  his  local 
market  are  influenced,  as  a  rule,  more  by  the  condition  of  the  whole 

[Cir  17]  (7) 


8 

crop  than  by  local  conditions.  The  entire  wheat  crop  of  his  county 
may  be  destroyed  and  prices  be  low,  if  the  entire  crop  is  large,  or 
his  county  may  have  a  bumper  crop  and  prices  be  very  high,  if  the 
entire  crop  be  short. 

Some  private  crop  reports  published  in  newspapers  are  honestly 
prepared  and  more  or  less  reUable;  on  the  other  hand,  misleading 
crop  reports  are  frequently  sent  throughout  the  country  to  affect 
prices  in  the  interest  of  speculators.  Does  the  average  farmer  know 
which  reports  are  rehable  and  which  are  sent  out  to  mislead?  The 
Government  reports  are  intended  to  enable  farmers  to  keep  them- 
selves informed  as  to  the  general  conditions.  The  question,  then, 
resolves  itself  to  this:  Does  it  benefit  the  farmer  to  "keep  posted"? 

But  even  those  farmers  who  do  not  keep  posted  are  indirectly 
benefited  by  the  publication  of  Government  crop  reports,  for  these 
reports  check  and  lessen  the  injurious  effects  of  false  reports  sent 
out  in  the  interest  of  speculators.  As  a  pohce  and  constable  force 
tends  to  check  but  not  entirely  prevent  crime,  so  Government 
reports  check  but  do  not  entirely  prevent  the  circulation  of  false 
and  injurious  reports. 

The  more  certainty  there  is  as  to  the  supply  of  and  demand  for 
a  crop  the  less  hazard  or  speculation  there  is  in  the  business  of  dis- 
tributing the  crop,  to  the  benefit,  in  the  long  run,  of  both  producer 
and  consumer. 

Large  manufacturing  fu'ms,  agricultural  implement  or  hardware 
companies,  who  neither  buy  nor  sell  farm  products,  are  much  inter- 
ested in  the  prospects  and  conditions  of  crops.  This  knowledge 
enables  them  to  distribute  more  economically  their  wares,  sending 
much  to  sections  where  crops  are  good  and  farmers  have  the  power 
to  buy,  and  less  to  sections  of  crop  shortage,  and  therefore  with  less 
buying  power.  Few  farmers  reaHze  how  much  is  saved  by  the  even 
distribution  of  wares  wliich  they  buy,  wMcli  is  secured  from  a  knowl- 
edge of  crop  prospects.  In  this  saving  farmers  in  the  long  run  are 
benefited. 

It  is  important  to  railroads  to  know  the  probable  size  of  crops  in 
the  country  in  order  to  provide  sufficient  cars  to  ship  the  grain.  The 
more  nearly  they  can  learn  the  size  of  the  crops  the  better  able  are 
they  to  move  them  economically.  Here,  again,  in  the  long  run,  farmers 
are  indirectly  benefited  by  the  cheaper  distribution  of  the  crop,  due 
to  better  information  of  crop  conditions. 

Under  modern  trade  regulations  and  conditions,  prompt  and  reli- 
able information  regarding  agricultural  areas,  prospects,  and  yields 
is  also  an  important  factor  in  the  proper  conduct  of  commercial, 
industrial,  and  transportation  enterprises.  The  earlier  the  informa- 
tion regarding   the   probable   production   of   the  great   agricultural 

[Cir  17] 


commodities  can  be  made  public,  the  more  safely  can  the  business  of 
the  country  be  managed  from  year  to  year. 

Retail  dealers  in  all  hnes  of  goods,  whether  in  city  or  country, 
order  from  wholesale  merchants,  jobbers,  or  manufacturers  the  goods 
they  expect  to  sell  many  weeks,  frequently  months,  before  actual 
purchase  and  shipment.  Jobbers  follow  the  same  course,  and  manu- 
facturers produce  the  goods  and  wares  handled  by  merchants  of 
every  class  far  ahead  of  their  actual  distribution  and  consumption. 

For  example,  retail  slio.e  dealers  place  their  orders  in  summer  for 
shoes  to  be  sold  during  the  fall,  winter,  or  following  spring  months. 
Wholesale  shoe  dealers  and  jobbers,  similarly,  order  from  manu- 
facturers the  particular  quahties  and  styles  of  shoes  indicated  by 
the  orders  of  the  retail  dealers  in  such  quantities  as  the  orders  show 
to  be  necessary.  The  manufacturers,  constantly  receiving  these 
orders,  adjust,  as  closely  as  they  can,  their  purchases  of  material, 
employment  of  operatives,  and  quantity  of  output  so  as  to  enable 
them  to  supply  the  quantity  of  shoes  which  have  been  or  are  likely 
to  be  ordered,  their  aim  being,  on  the  one  hand,  to  meet  fully  and 
promptly  the  requirements  of  trade  (in  other  words,  the  demand  of 
the  purchasing  pubhc)  and,  on  the  other  hand,  to  avoid  such  over- 
production as  will  result  in  a  large  surplus  unsalable  except  at  a  loss. 

The  same  ideas  and  rules  prevail  throughout  every  branch  of 
trade,  commerce,  and  transportation,  the  shoe  business  being  simply 
an  example  of  other  hnes  of  business  in  the  matter  of  "doing  things 
in  advance." 

Now,  it  is  universally  conceded  that  farming — agriculture — is  the 
basic  industry  upon  which  all  other  industries  greatly  depend.  The 
measure  of  the  country's  crops  is  to  a  large  extent  the  measure  of 
the  country's  prosperity,  and  the  purchasing  power  of  the  people  is 
increased  or  diminished  as  the  crops  are  bountiful  or  meager.  There- 
fore the  commercial  interests  of  the  country  are  vitally  affected  by 
the  quantity  and  quahty  of  the  crops;  and  it  becomes  a  matter  of 
vast  importance  to  them  to  know  "in  advance"  what  the  crop  pros- 
pects are  during  the  growing  season  and  what  the  output  is  at  harvest. 

With  such  information  carefully  and  scientifically  gathered  and 
compiled,  and  honestly  disseminated,  so  that  it  can  be  depended  upon 
to  be  as  rehable  as  any  forecast  or  estimate  can  possibly  be,  and 
reUed  upon  as  emanating  from  an  impartial  and  disinterested  source, 
the  merchants  and  manufacturers  of  the  country  can  certainly  act 
with  a  degree  of  prudence  and  intelligence  not  possible  were  the 
information  lacking. 

If  reports  show,  during  the  growing  season,  that  the  condition  of 
wheat  is  such  as  to  indicate  a  full  crop  on  a  large  area,  the  merchants 
of  the  wheat-producing  sections  of  the  country  know  that  they  can 

[Cir   17] 


10 

give  liberal  orders  for  goods  to  be  handled  by  them  several  weeks  or 
months  later;  the  manufacturers,  located  far  from  the  wheat  fields, 
know  where  there  will  be  a  large  demand  for  such  of  their  products 
as  are  used  by  all  dependent  upon  the  wheat  industry;  the  railroad 
companies  know  they  will  have  heavy  freights  to  transport;  and  so 
the  advance  knowledge  regarding  the  probable  future  outcome  of  the 
crop  serves  as  a  gviide  to  every  branch  of  commerce  and  trade  con- 
nected with  the  wheat-growing  areas  of  the  country.  The  same  is 
true  as  to  the  other  crops — corn,  cotton,  oa^ts,  rye,  tobacco,  etc. 

If,  on  the  other  hand,  the  condition  of  growing  crops  is  unfavor- 
able, rehable  information  to  that  effect  is  equally,  in  fact  more, 
important  to  trade  and  commerce  than  when  the  promise  is  good. 
For,  when  conditions  are  unfavorable,  the  merchants,  manufacturers, 
and  transporters  must  move  with  a  degree  of  caution  not  necessary 
when  the  prospects  are  highly  encouraging. 

It  was  to  remedy  the  evils  and  to  subserve  and  protect  the  interests 
of  aU,  as  above  noted,  that  Congress  provided  for  issuing  monthly 
crop  reports,  and  the  crop-reporting  service  of  the  Department  of 
Agriculture  aims  to  supply  the  pubhc  at  large  with  impartial,  unbiased 
information  regarding  crop  areas,  conditions,  and  yields  which,  it 
must  be  apparent,  is  highly  essential  and  beneficial  not  only  to 
farmers,  but  also,  equally,  to  our  commercial  interests  of  every  kind 
and  class. 

ORIGIN  OF  THE  CROP-REPOIITING  SERVICE. 

The  first  enactment  authorizing  the  collection  of  agricultural  sta- 
tistics by  the  Department  of  Agriculture  was  the  act,  passed  May  15, 
1862,  establishing  the  department,  "the  general  design  and  duties 
of  which  shall  be  to  acquire  and  to  diffuse  among  the  people  of 
the  United  States  information  on  subjects  connected  with  agricul- 
ture, in  the  most  general  and  comprehensive  sense  of  that  word." 
The  commissioner  was  required  by  this  act  to  "procure  and  preserve 
all  information  concerning  agriculture  which  he  can  obtain  by  means 
of  books,  correspondence,  and  by  practical  and  scientific  experi- 
ments, accurate  records  of  which  experiments  shall  be  kept  in  his 
office,  by  the  collection  of  statistics,  and  by  any  other  appropriate 
means  within  his  power." 

The  first  appropriation  for  collecting  agricultural  statistics  by  the 
department  was  provided  for  by  the  act  of  February  25,  1863,  which 
was  made  in  bulk  for  the  work  of  the  department,  amounting  in  all 
to  $90,000.  The  then  Commissioner  of  Agriculture  allotted  a  part  of 
this  amount  for  collecting  agricultural  statistics,  and  appointed  a 
statistician  for  that  purpose.  For  the  fiscal  year  entk^l  June  30, 
1865,  the  first  distinct  and  separate  provision  was  made  for  (jollecting 

[Cir  17] 


11 

agricultural  statistics  for  information  and  reports,  and  the  amount 
of  $20,000  was  appropriated. 

From  an  allotment  of  a  few  thousand  dollars  each  year  at  first  the 
crop-reporting  service  has  been  evolved,  perfected,  and  enlarged  into 
the  Bureau  of  Statistics  of  this  department. 

The  appropriation  act  for  the  Department  of  Agriculture  for  the 
fiscal  year  ended  June  30,  1912,  carried  appropriations  of  about 
$232,000  for  the  Bureau  of  Statistics.  As  the  appropriations  for  the 
statistical  and  crop-reporting  service  have  been  gradually  increased 
during  the  past  several  years,  the  field  service  and  organization  of 
the  bureau  have  been  correspondingly  enlarged. 

METHODS  OF  CROP  REPORTING. 

The  Bureau  of  Statistics  issues  each  month  detailed  reports  relating 
to  agricultural  conditions  throughout  the  United  States,  the  data 
upon  which  they  are  based  being  obtained  through  a  special  field 
service,  a  corps  of  State  statistical  agents,  and  a  large  body  of  vol- 
untary correspondents  composed  of  the  following  classes:  County 
correspondents,  township  correspondents,  individual  farmers,  and 
special  cotton  correspondents. 

The  special  field  service  consists  of  20  traveling  agents,  each 
assigned  to  report  for  a  separate  group  of  States.  These  agents  are 
especially  qualified  by  statistical  training  and  practical  knowledge 
of  crops.  They  systematically  travel  over  the  districts  assigned  to 
them,  carefully  note  the  development  of  each  crop,  keep  in  touch  with 
best  informed  opinion,  and  render  written  and  telegraphic  reports 
monthly  and  at  such  other  times  as  required. 

There  are  47  State  statistical  agents,  located  in  different  States. 
Each  reports  for  his  State  as  a  whole,  and  maintains  a  corps  of 
correspondents  entirely  independent  of  those  reporting  directly 
to  the  department  at  Wasliington.  These  State  statistical  corre- 
spondents report  each  month  directly  to  the  State  agent  on 
schedules  furnished  him.  The  reports  are  then  tabulated  and 
weighted  according  to  the  relative  product  or  area  of  the  given  crop 
in  each  county  represented,  and  are  summarized  by  the  State  agent, 
who  coordinates  and  analyzes  them  in  the  light  of  his  personal 
knowledge  of  conditions,  and  from  them  prepares  liis  reports  to  the 
department. 

There  are  approximately  2,800  counties  of  agricultural  importance 
in  the  United  States.  In  each  the  department  has  a  principal  county 
correspondent  who  maintains  an  organization  of  several  assistants. 
These  county  correspondents  are  selected  with  special  reference  to 
their  qualifications  and  constitute  an  efficient  branch  of  the  crop- 
reporting  service.     They  make  the  county  the  geographical  unit  of 

[Cir  17] 


12 

their  reports,  and,  after  obtaining  data  each  month  from  their  assist- 
ants and  supplementing  these  with  information  obtained  from  their 
own  observation  and  knowledge,  report  directly  to  the  department 
at  Wasliington. 

In  the  townsliips  and  voting  precincts  of  the  United  States  in 
which  farming  operations  are  extensively  carried  on  the  department 
has  township  correspondents  who  make  the  townsliip  or  precinct  the 
geographical  basis  of  reports,  which  they  also  send  directly  to  the 
department  each  month.  There  are  about  32,000  township  corre- 
spondents. 

Finally,  at  the  end  of  the  growing  season  a  large  number  of  indi- 
vidual farmers  and  planters  report  on  the  results  of  their  own  indi- 
vidual farming  operations  during  the  year;  valuable  data  are  also 
secured  from  30,000  mills  and  elevators. 

With  regard  to  cotton,  all  the  information  from  the  foregoing 
sources  is  supplemented  by  that  furnished  by  special  cotton  corre- 
spondents, embracing  a  large  number  of  persons  intimately  concerned 
in  the  cotton  industry;  and,  in  addition,  inquiries  in  relation  to 
acreage  and  yield  per  acre  of  cotton  are  addressed  to  the  Bureau  of  the 
Census's  list  of  cotton  ginners  through  the  courtesy  of  that  bureau. 

SCOPE   OF   CROP   REPORTS. 

Beginning  with  planting,  data  are  gathered  and  reports  made 
as  to  the  condition  and  acreage  of  each  of  the  principal  agricultural 
products,  such  as  corn,  wheat,  oats,  rye,  barley,  potatoes,  hay,  cotton, 
tobacco,  rice,  etc.  As  the  crops  progress  the  prospects  are  reflected 
in  monthly  condition  reports  upon  each  growing  crop;  such  reports 
being  expressed  in  percentages,  100  representing  a  normal  condition. 
A  normal  condition  of  100  would  be  the  condition  of  the  plant  where 
it  gives  promise  of  such  a  crop  as  might  be  expected  if  the  plant  were 
not  subjected  to  damaging  influences,  but  grew  bountifully  and  under 
favorable  conditions,  including  favorable  weather,  freedom  from 
damaging  insects,  etc.  A  ''normal  crop"  is  not  a  crop  which  might 
be  raised  by  exceptional  skill  or  by  an  exceptional  farmer,  but  such 
a  crop  as,  planted  and  cultivated,  will  be  produced  if  not  subjected 
to  damaging  influences.  Condition  reports,  expressed  in  percentages 
of  a  normal,  when  published,  are  coupled  with  a  statement  of  the 
averages  of  similar  reports  at  corresponding  dates  in  preceding 
years  (usually  ten-year  averages) ;  by  such  comparison  the  condition 
of  crops  in  comparison  with  the  average  condition  is  readily  obtained. 
At  harvest  time  the  yields  per  acre  are  ascertained,  which,  being 
multiplied  by  the  acreage  figures  already  ascertained,  give  the  pro- 
duction or  quantitative  figures  for  the  year. 

Eleven  monthly  reports  on  the  principal  crops  are  received  yearly 
from  each  of  the  special  field  agents,  county  correspondents.  State 

[Cir  17] 


13 


statistical  agents,  and  township  correspondents,  and  one  report  relat- 
ino-  to  the  acreage  and  production  of  general  crops  annuallj^  from 
individual  farmers. 

Tlie  following  tabulation  is  designed  to  show,  in  abbreviated  form, 
the  scope  of  monthly  crop  inquiries  of  the  Bureau  of  Statistics,  in 
1911,  and  the  time  and  nature  of  inquiry  for  each  crop.  Slight 
modifications  may  be  made  from  time  to  time.  Characters  are 
placed  xmder  months  in  which  reports  are  pubUshed.  Explanatory- 
key  is  given  at  the  bottom  of  the  tabulation. 


Scope  of  monthly  crop  inquiries. 

Crop. 

Jan. 

Mar.    Apr. 

May. 

June. 

July. 

Aug. 

Sept. 

Oct. 

Nov. 

Dec. 

Cereals: 

v+ 
v+ 
v+ 
v+ 

sf 

Ac 

c 

OS 
Ac 
c 
sc 
c 
AYq 

c 

0 

c 
c 
c 

Yq 

c 

c 
Yq 

c 

w 
Yq 
sYq 

w 

F 

F 

sfm 
sf 

Ac 

c 
Ac 

c 

s 

c 

c 

c 
c 
c 
c 

F 

Oats                   

Ac 

F 

rF 

v+ 

"sf" 

c 

c 

c 

AcF 

Wheat  (all) 

Ac 
c 

c 
c 
c 
ac 

c 
Yq 

c 
c 
c 

pq 

0 

Yq 

w 
w 

F 

c 

re 

AcF 

Forage  (grasses): 

Alfalfa               

p 
p 

c 

P 

ac 

c 
Yq 

c 

c 

P 
c 

c 
c 
c 
c 
c 
c 

c 

c 
c 

c 

Ac 
c 
c 
c 
c 

c 

p 

c 

yp 

Hav  (all)             

v+ 

sfc 

c 

F 

p 
p 

ayp 

Millet 

c 

c 

Timothy        

Fruits: 

v+ 

c 
c 
e 

c 

c 

}T>q 

p 

c 
c 
c 
c 

p 

c 

c 
c 
c 
c 

ypq 
j-pq 

c 
c 

c 
c 
c 
c 
c 
c 

p 

0 

c 
c 
c 

0 

c 

p 

p 

D 

c 
c 
c 

c 

ypq 

Watermelons 

e 
P 

c 

p 

Vegetables: 

v+ 

c 

c 

c 

c 

Ac 
ac 

c 

c 

e 

Ac 
c 
c 
c 

c 
c 
c 
c 
c 
c 
c 

c 
c 
c 
c 
c 
c 

c 
c 
c 
c 
c 
c 

0 

c 
c 
c 
c 
c 
c 

p 
p 
p 
p 

c 
c 

p 
p 

c 
c 

p 
yq 

c 

Beans  (Lima) 

c 
c 
c 

v+ 
v+ 

SV  + 

v+ 

Onions 

Yq 

yq 

F 

Sweet  potatoes 

V 

Miscellaneous: 

v+ 
v+ 
v+ 

F 

Ac 

"Yq" 

rY 

F 

c 

Peanuts 

j-pq 

1 

Sorghum 

ac 
c 
c 
Act 
w 

0 

c 
c 
c 

c 
c 
c 
c 

c 
c 

0 
0 

y 

c 
c 
Yq 

V 

Sugar  beets 

c 
ac 

ayp 
TF 

Sugarcane 

Tobacco 

Wool 

[Cir  17] 


14 


Scope  of  monthly  crop  inquiries — Continued. 


*        Crop. 

Jan. 

Mar. 

Apr. 

May. 

June. 

July. 

Aug. 

Sept. 

Oct. 

Nov. 

Dec. 

Live  stock: 

nv4- 
nv 
nv+ 
nv+ 

de 

Other  cattle 

dec 
de 
dec 
deb 

nv+ 
nv+ 

he 

I""" 

Key.— (A)  Acreage,  total  production,  percentage  of  last  year  and  total,  (a)  Acreage  in  percentage  of  last 
year  only,  (b)  Number  of  breeding  sows  compared  with  last  year,  (c)  Condition,  (d)  Losses  from  disease, 
(e)  Losses  from  exposure.  (F)  Final  estimates  of  acreage,  and  value,  (f )  Percentage  of  crop  shipped  out  of 
county  where  gro^vn.  (h)  Number  stock  hogs  compared  vnth  year  ago.  (m)  Percentage  of  crop  of  mer- 
chantable quality,  (n)  Number,  (p)  Percentage  of  full  crop  produced,  (q)  Quality,  (r)  Acreage  remain- 
ing after  abandonment.  (3)  Supplies  on  farms,  (t)  Area  and  condition  by  types.  (T)  Acreage,  production 
and  value  by  types  in  December  supplement,  (v)  Values.  Prices  of  products  marked  (v+)  in  January 
are  asked  each  month,  (w)  Weight  per  bushel  or  fleece.  (Y)  Yield  per  acre  and  total  production, 
(y)  Yield  per  acre  only.    (%)  Percentage  done  May  1. 

TRANSMISSION  OF  REPORTS  TO  BUREAU  BY  CORRESPONDENTS. 

Previous  to  the  preparation  and  issuance  of  the  bureau's  reports 
each  month  the  correspondents  of  the  several  classes  send  their  re- 
ports separately  and  independently  to  the  department  at  Washington. 

In  order  to  prevent  any  possible  access  to  reports  which  relate  to 
speculative  crops,  and  to  render  it  absolutely  impossible  for  prema- 
ture information  to  be  derived  from  them,  all  of  the  reports  from  the 
State  statistical  agents,  as  well  as  those  of  the  special  field  agents, 
are  sent  to  the  Secretary  of  Agriculture  in  specially  prepared  en- 
velopes. By  an  arrangement  with  the  postal  authorities  these  envel- 
opes are  delivered  to  the  Secretary  of  Agriculture  m  sealed  mail 
pouches.  These  pouches  are  opened  only  by  the  Secretary  or  Assist- 
ant Secretary,  and  the  reports,  with  seals  unbroken,  are  immediately 
placed  in  the  safe  in  the  Secretaiy's  office,  where  they  remain  sealed 
until  the  morning  of  the  day  on  which  the  bureau  report  is  issued, 
when  they  are  dehvered  to  the  statistician  by  the  Secretary  or  the 
Assistant  Secretary.  The  combination  for  opening  the  safe  in  which 
such  documents  are  kept  is  known  only  to  the  Secretary  and  the 
Assistant  Secretary  of  Agriculture.  Reports  from  special  field  agents 
and  State  statistical  agents  residing  at  points  more  than  500  miles 
from  Washington  are  sent  by  telegraph,  in  cipher.  The  reports 
from  the  county  correspondents,  township  correspondents,  and  other 
voluntary  agents  are  sent  to  the  Chief  of  the  Bureau  of  Statistics 
by  mail  in  sealed  envelopes. 

[Cir  17] 


15 

PREPARATION  OF  REPORTS. 

The  reports  received  by  the  department  from  the  different  classes 
of  individual  correspondents  are  tabulated  and  compiled  and  the 
figure  for  each  separate  State  computed.  After  the  reports  from  the 
different  counties  are  tabulated  a  true  weighted  figure  for  the  State 
is  secured  by  taking  into  consideration  the  relative  value  which  the 
total  acreage  or  production  of  each  county  in  the  State  bears  to  the 
total  acreage  or  production  of  the  State.  The  weighted  figure  show- 
ing the  value  of  the  county  is  appHed  to  the  acreage,  yield  per  acre, 
or  condition,  whichever  it  may  be,  and  from  the  totals  of  the  weights 
and  the  extensions  a  weighted  average  for  the  State  is  ascertained. 

The  work  of  making  the  final  crop  estimates  each  month  culminates 
at  sessions  of  the  crop-reporting  board,  composed  of  five  members, 
(presided  over  by  the  statistician  and  chief  of  bureau  as  chairman), 
whose  services  are  brought  into  requisition  each  crop-reporting  day 
from  among  the  statisticians  and  officials  of  the  bureau,  and  special 
field  and  State  statistical  agents  who  are  called  to  Washington  for 
the  purpose. 

The  personnel  of  the  board  is  changed  each  month.  The  meetings 
are  held  in  the  office  of  the  statistician,  which  is  kept  locked  during 
sessions,  no  one  being  allowed  to  enter  or  leave  the  room  or  the 
bureau,  and  all  telephones  being  disconnected. 

When  the  board  has  assembled,  reports  and  telegrams  regarding 
speculative  crops  from  State  and  field  agents,  wliich  have  been  placed 
unopened  in  a  safe  in  the  office  of  the  Secretary  of  Agriculture,  are 
delivered  by  the  Secretary,  opened,  and  tabulated ;  and  the  figures,  by 
States,  from  the  several  classes  of  correspondents  and  agents  relating 
to  all  crops  dealt  Avith  are  tabulated  in  convenient  parallel  columns; 
the  board  is  thus  provided  with  several  separate  estimates  covering 
each  State  and  each  separate  crop,  made  independently  by  the  respec- 
tive classes  of  correspondents  and  agents  of  the  biu-eau,  each  report- 
ing for  a  territory  or  geographical  imit  with  which  he  is  thoroughly 
familiar. 

Abstracts  of  the  weather  condition  reports  in  relation  to  the  dif- 
ferent crops,  by  States,  are  also  prepared  from  the  weekly  bidletins 
of  the  Weather  Bureau.  With  all  these  data  before  the  board,  each 
individual  member  computes  independently,  on  a  separate  sheet  or 
final  computation  slip,  his  own  estimate  of  the  acreage,  condition, 
or  yield  of  each  crop,  or  of  the  number,  condition,  etc.,  of  farm 
animals  for  each  State  separately.  These  results  are  then  compared 
and  discussed  by  the  board  under  the  supervision  of  the  chairman, 
and  the  final  figures  for  each  State  are  decided  upon. 

[Cir  17] 


16 

The  estimates  by  States  as  finally  determined  by  the  board  are 
weighted  by  the  acreage  figures  for  the  respective  States,  the  result 
for  the  United  States  being  a  true  weighted  average  for  each  subject. 

METHOD  OF  ISSUING  REPORTS. 

Reports  in  relation  to  cotton,  after  being  prepared  by  the  crop- 
reporting  board,  and  personally  approved  by  the  Secretary  of  Agri- 
culture, are  issued  on  the  first  or  second  day  of  each  month  during 
the  growing  season,  and  reports  relating  to  the  principal  farm  crops 
and  live  stock  on  the  seventh  or  eighth  day  of  each  month.  In  order 
that  the  information  contained  in  these  reports  may  be  made  avail- 
able simultaneously  throughout  the  entire  United  States,  they  are 
handed,  at  an  announced  hour  on  report  days,  to  all  apphcants  and 
to  the  Western  Union  Telegraph  Co.  and  the  Postal  Telegraph 
Cable  Co.,  who  have  branch  offices  in  the  Department  of  Agricultiu-e, 
for  transmission  to  the  exchanges  and  to  the  press.  These  com- 
panies have  reserved  their  lines  at  the  designated  time,  and  forward 
immediately  the  figures  of  most  interest.  A  mimeograph  or  multi- 
graph  statement,  containing  such  estimates  of  condition  or  actual 
production,  together  with  the  corresponding  estimates  of  former 
years  for  comparative  purposes,  is  prepared  and  mailed  immediately 
to  newspaper  publications.  The  same  day  printed  cards  containing 
the  essential  facts  concerning  the  most  important  crops  of  the  report 
are  mailed  to  the  77,000  post  offices  throughout  the  United  States 
for  public  display,  thus  placing  most  valuable  information  within 
the  farmer's  immediate  reach. 

Promptly  after  the  issuing  of  the  report,  it,  together  with  other 
statistical  information  of  value  to  the  farmer  and  the  country  at 
large,  is  published  in  the  Crop  Reporter,  an  8-page  publication  of 
the  Bureau  of  Statistics,  under  the  authority  of  the  Secretary  of 
Agriculture.  An  edition  of  over  165,000  copies  is  distributed  to  the 
correspondents  and  other  interested  parties  throughout  the  United 
States  each  month. 

[Cir  17] 

o 


